It is clear that there will not be a one-for-one replacement of individually owned passenger cars with autonomous electric vehicles (A-EVs).

Our 2017 report Rethinking Transportation 2020-2030 estimates that even if the passenger-mile demand for travel in the U.S. increases by 50% over the 2015 level, all of this greater travel demand could be served by about 18 million individually owned cars and about 26 million robotaxis. These numbers are uncertain and depend on the assumptions made about robotaxi utilization and economics, but it is clear that there will not be a one-for-one replacement of individually owned passenger cars with autonomous electric vehicles.

Explore the evidence...

• Read our blog post to find out how many A-EVs will be needed to meet our global demand.

• To learn more about implications for vehicle manufacturing companies, and strategies available to car manufacturers, read p57-59 of our Rethinking Transportation report.

Witness the transformation

From the introduction of Transport-as-a-Service (TaaS), consumers purchasing a new car will choose TaaS over independently owned internal combustion engine vehicles and even owning A-EVs, for purely economic reasons. 

When you combine autonomy, electric drivetrains, deep connectivity and supercharging, you’ve got—for the first time ever—an almost fully electric/digital system that can move atoms, not just bits. TaaS will ultimately disrupt the entire transportation industry.