Rethinking Energy 2020-2030 (2020):
100% Solar, Wind and Batteries is Just the Beginning
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We are on the cusp of the fastest, deepest, most profound disruption of the energy sector in over a century
About the Report
Rethinking Energy 2020-2030 100% Solar, Wind, and Batteries is Just the Beginning
We are on the cusp of the fastest, deepest, most profound disruption of the energy sector in over a century. Like most disruptions, this one is being driven by the convergence of several key technologies whose costs and capabilities have been improving on consistent and predictable trajectories – namely, solar photovoltaic power, wind power, and lithium-ion battery energy storage.
Our analysis shows that 100% clean electricity from the combination of solar, wind, and batteries (SWB) is both physically possible and economically affordable across the entire continental United States as well as the overwhelming majority of other populated regions of the world by 2030. Adoption of SWB is growing exponentially worldwide and disruption is now inevitable because by 2030 they will offer the cheapest electricity option for most regions.
Coal, gas, and nuclear power assets will become stranded during the 2020s, and no new investment in these technologies is rational from this point forward.
Adam Dorr and Tony Seba (RethinkX), October 2020
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Just as the Internet disrupted many incumbent industries but facilitated the emergence of many more – and created trillions of dollars of new value – by reducing the marginal cost of information to near zero, the SWB disruption will have a similar impact by reducing the marginal cost of energy to near-zero for a substantial portion of the year.
- Rethinking Energy (2020) Report
Supplementary Material:
Rethinking Energy 2020-2030: Methodology
This methodological note presents the data sources, logic, and assumptions upon which our electricity sector modeling is based.Note, this document will be extended with methodological updates as part of a series of research reports that we plan to publish on the disruption of the energy sector.
Adam Dorr & Tony Seba (RethinkX), November 2020
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