15 RethinkX Robotics Insights

Insight 1: The humanoid robot labor disruption is inevitable

Humanoid robots will enter the market at a cost-capability of under $10/hour for their labor, on a trajectory to under $1/hour before 2035 and under $0.10/hour before 2045

Throughout history, every time technology has enabled a 10x or greater cost reduction relative to the incumbent system, a disruption has always followed. This figure alone makes the disruption of a substantial fraction of human labor inevitable.

Insight 2: This disruption will create an entirely new labor system

Humanoid robots won’t just displace human jobs. Instead, they will create an entirely new and vastly larger and more capable labor system.

It is impossible to know in advance the full details of how the new labor system will differ from today, but the key feature is: the marginal cost of labor will rapidly approach zero. This is what we call a phase change disruption. Phase change disruptions create entirely new and much larger systems, with new properties, new business models, and new metrics, just like when the Internet and digital technologies reduced the marginal cost of information and communications to near-zero.

Insight 3: This disruption is about tasks not jobs

So long as humanoid robots are not sentient, they will not have jobs. They will only perform tasks.

Most jobs involve much more than performing a single task. They typically entail responsibility for a range of tasks, each of which requires a different amount of training, experience, and skill to perform. The disruption of labor, with all of its world-changing implications, can therefore only be understood with tasks as the correct unit of analysis, and tasks per hour per dollar as the corresponding cost-capability metric.

Insight 4: All products and services will get cheaper

Labor is an essential input into every link of every supply chain of every product and service across the entire global economy. That means as the cost of labor falls, so will the cost of everything else.

This would hold true as humanoid robots are deployed at scale even if the cost-capability of the robots themselves remained static. But, of course, the cost-capability of humanoid robots will also be improving at the same time – and dramatically – as deployment proceeds. This will only amplify and accelerate the dynamic of universal cost reduction. We must expect and plan for a sweeping tide of supply-driven (NOT demand-driven) deflationary pressure across the entire global economy as a function of the disruption of labor by humanoid robots.

Insight 5: All products will get better

The quality of virtually all manufactured goods will tend to improve, because the limits of skill and attention to detail that apply to humans do not apply to robots.

Every humanoid robot will perform every task it is capable of performing, at the maximum quality it can perform it, every single time. Manufacturers will have far less incentive to cut corners, sacrifice precision, or fail to ensure that tasks and processes are performed with maximum care and thoughtfulness, because – in stark contrast to human workers – there will be little to no cost savings obtainable from humanoid robots these ways.

Insight 6: Productivity will skyrocket

Humanoid robots will unleash a torrent of productivity as countless tasks that could hitherto only be performed by the finite supply of adult humans start to be performed far more cheaply by humanoid robots.

This will affect not only all existing applications and industries, but also enable entirely new applications and industries which were not previously possible in the old human-based labor system due to the high cost, danger, or other limitations of human workers. And the humanoid robot labor force can expand with little constraint in almost any region or country, negating most of the regional competitive advantage from low-cost labor that we see today.

Insight 7: Investing in humanoid robots is now a matter of national interest

Humanoid robots will allow any nation to massively expand its national workforce infrastructure, economic self sufficiency and security, and thus grow its economy on a productivity-per-capita basis, to a degree that has simply been physically impossible up until now.

National workforce expansion

It takes almost twenty years and more than $100,000 to raise a child and prepare them to join the national workforce of a middle-income country. Humanoid robots, by contrast, can be added to the workforce as fast as they can be manufactured, and it is unlikely their unit cost will exceed that of an inexpensive car even at the very start of commercial deployment.

National infrastructure

Nations have historically made enormous investments in basic infrastructure, and we ought to expect this for humanoid robots as well. And just as investments in road and electrical infrastructure recursively enabled their own further deployment, so too will humanoid robots.

National economic self-sufficiency

The greater a nation’s productive capacity is, the greater is its ability to remain economically self-sufficient. In the past, this was only realistic for populous nations with a large resource base. But a large robotic workforce combined with the disruptions of energy, transportation, and food we have analyzed in our other research would allow even the smaller nations of the world to become far less dependent upon foreign trade.

National security

Any humanoid robot capable of working in a productive capacity can also be deployed in a national security capacity, whether in a supporting or frontline role. And unlike human beings, for whom military conscription and training and deployment is difficult and costly on every level, humanoid robots can be repurposed literally overnight.

Insight 8: National mobilization and enormous investments in humanoid robots are now justified, and there is no time to lose

Humanoid robots are likely to be one of the most profitable physical product categories ever, by virtue of the sheer scale of their production numbers alone. It is reasonable to expect the number of humanoid robots deployed to exceed 1 billion over the next two decades – and possibly much more.

As the capabilities of humanoid robots approach and then exceed those of human workers, the future will belong to those societies that embrace the humanoid robot labor disruption by developing and deploying this technology as rapidly as possible.

Insight 9: The disruption of labor accelerates the other foundational disruptions of energy, transportation and food & agriculture

Working together, amplifying and accelerating each other, these four disruptions will open the door to an entirely new kind of production system based on a new economics of superabundance rather than scarcity.

By making all goods and services cheaper, higher-quality, and generally expanding productivity at large, humanoid robots will accelerate the deployment of each of the constituent technologies behind the other three foundational disruptions as well: solar power, wind power, and batteries in the energy sector; electric-autonomous vehicles in the transportation sector; and precision fermentation and cellular agriculture in the food sector.

Insight 10: Humanoid robotics will massively increase prosperity, and thereby make every major social, economic, geopolitical, and environmental problem more solvable

The disruption of labor – especially in combination with the disruption of energy, transportation, and food – has the potential to vastly expand material abundance worldwide, and thus greatly increase prosperity for everyone, everywhere.

If the rate of cost-capability improvement in humanoid robots continues as it has been, we will enter an era of material superabundance and prosperity over the next 10-20 years that has hitherto been all but unimaginable outside of science fiction.

Insight 11: The technology convergence of the the humanoid robot labor engine is happening now, and manufacturability is critical

It is now a high-stakes global race to build and deploy robots as quickly as possible, among not only competitors within any given industry, but also between industries and between nations as well.

Much of the value, as well as competitive advantage, of humanoid robots from the very start will be in their deployment at scale. Even if their capability is limited at first, this can be continuously upgraded with over-the-air updates as their AI rapidly improves, which means there is no reason to delay adoption.

Insight 12: The humanoid form factor will dominate robotics applications for at least the next decade

Although specialization and optimization of robotics unconstrained by the human form will eventually make sense, the robots developed and deployed during the first phase of the disruption will take humanoid form.

Why?

Suitability of existing environs - all existing facilities, equipment, and infrastructure is designed around the human form.

Ease of data gathering - the humanoid form is a clear choice for facilitating large-scale data gathering needed for the AI training driving humanoid robots, because humans themselves can facilitate the collection of the needed data.

General-purpose capability - our human capabilities are themselves testament to how successful the humanoid form is as a general-purpose “platform”.

Familiarity - The humanoid form is naturally familiar to us, and even if another general-purpose form were functionally superior (such as a crab-like or wheeled form), we find might working alongside such robots intimidating or even frightening.

Insight 13: Autocatalysis of humanoid robot production will be key to the success of both individual firms and national economies.

Humanoid robots must be deployed as early as possible into their own manufacturing to accelerate their production and deployment flywheel.

Computer hardware and software has always been used to design better computer hardware and software. Autocatalysis, or self-acceleration, will thus need to be a crucial part of humanoid robot investment and deployment strategy at every level – from an individual firm’s business model to an entire nation’s policymaking.

Insight 14: Technological unemployment remains inevitable, but latent demand for labor will be met first, creating a crucial planning window for a soft landing

The era of complementarity between labor and capital is coming to a close. “Work” will soon become something that only machines do.

In the near term, for perhaps a decade or so, humanoid robots will largely be deployed to meet demand for labor that is currently going unmet by humans – as opposed to directly displacing human workers from jobs they currently occupy.

When the disruption of labor is complete, we will need to rethink economics itself because fundamental notions like scarcity and exogenous total factor productivity will no longer hold. The labor engine (itself a new kind of “capital”) will become self-sustaining and self-expanding, and superabundance will become the rule rather than the exception.

It is almost impossible to overstate how radical this transformation of the human condition will be.

It will indeed be liberating to an extent that up until now has seemed almost unimaginable – purely the realm of utopian science fiction.

But it also means widespread public concern about technological unemployment from AI and robotics remains entirely valid in the longer term, from perhaps the late-2030s onward.

It is therefore crucial that we not become complacent, and instead recognize the interim period for what it is: a brief and lucky opportunity to plan for the inevitable technological employment that must ultimately result from the disruption of labor.

Insight 15: Demand for labor is so great and varied that many different firms will thrive simultaneously in the early years of the disruption.

Like light bulbs, telephones, computers, and many other disruptive technologies, the demand for humanoid robots will be enormous.

At the beginning of the disruption, when demand still vastly exceeds supply, no single producer will be able to capture all markets. We should therefore expect to see the same pattern that has emerged in previous disruptions: many companies, both startups and incumbents, will rapidly develop humanoid robot offerings for wide range applications, targeting dozens or hundreds of market niches, using a variety of different business models.

Above all, we must protect people, not firms or industries from the coming, inevitable disruption of labor

The disruption of labor is inevitable, and together with the disruptions of energy, transportation, and food, it could herald a new age of unprecedented freedom and prosperity. But only if we are willing to experiment, to learn, and to transcend the limits of the past – starting right now.

As we explained in our 2020 book, it is time to rethink humanity.

RethinkX uses our Seba Technology Disruption Framework to predict disruptions

By applying our framework together with empirical data spanning hundreds of technology disruptions, RethinkX is able to characterize the underlying dynamics of the disruption and forecast trends based on patterns we have seen time and again across thousands of years of recorded history.

Our Framework takes a systems approach to analyze the market forces triggered by technology convergence, business model innovation, product innovation, and exponential improvements in both cost and capabilities. It captures the complex processes that drive a pattern of rapid, nonlinear change.

Explore our Framework

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Topic / Labor / In-depth

15 Insights into Humanoid Robotics

Over the next 15-20 years, humanoid robots will disrupt human labor throughout every sector of the global economy.These 15 insights present a high level overview on the coming disruption of labor...

Insight 1: The humanoid robot labor disruption is inevitable

Humanoid robots will enter the market at a cost-capability of under $10/hour for their labor, on a trajectory to under $1/hour before 2035 and under $0.10/hour before 2045

Humanoid robots today are the most expensive and least capable they will ever be.

Insight 2: This disruption will create an entirely new labor system

Humanoid robots won’t just displace human jobs. Instead, they will create an entirely new and vastly larger and more capable labor system.

Above all: Protect people, not jobs, firms, or industries.

- Tony Seba, RethinkX cofounder

Insight 3: This disruption is about tasks not jobs

So long as humanoid robots are not sentient, they will not have jobs. They will only perform tasks.

Insight 4: All products and services will get cheaper

Labor is an essential input into every link of every supply chain of every product and service across the entire global economy. That means as the cost of labor falls, so will the cost of everything else.

Insight 5: All products will get better

The quality of virtually all manufactured goods will tend to improve, because the limits of skill and attention to detail that apply to humans do not apply to robots.

Insight 6: Productivity will skyrocket

Humanoid robots will unleash a torrent of productivity as countless tasks that could hitherto only be performed by the finite supply of adult humans start to be performed far more cheaply by humanoid robots.

By 2035 adding one million people to a nation’s workforce might cost $100 billion and take 20 years, whereas adding one million humanoid robots to its workforce might cost just $10 billion and take a single year.

Insight 7: Investing in humanoid robots is now a matter of national interest

Humanoid robots will allow any nation to massively expand its national workforce infrastructure, economic self sufficiency and security, and thus grow its economy on a productivity-per-capita basis, to a degree that has simply been physically impossible up until now.

National workforce expansion

National infrastructure

National economic self-sufficiency

National security

Insight 8: National mobilization and enormous investments in humanoid robots are now justified, and there is no time to lose

Humanoid robots are likely to be one of the most profitable physical product categories ever, by virtue of the sheer scale of their production numbers alone. It is reasonable to expect the number of humanoid robots deployed to exceed 1 billion over the next two decades – and possibly much more.

It is now rational for societies to devote a non-trivial fraction of their entire GDP to investment in humanoid robotics.

Insight 9: The disruption of labor accelerates the other foundational disruptions of energy, transportation and food & agriculture

Working together, amplifying and accelerating each other, these four disruptions will open the door to an entirely new kind of production system based on a new economics of superabundance rather than scarcity.

Insight 10: Humanoid robotics will massively increase prosperity, and thereby make every major social, economic, geopolitical, and environmental problem more solvable

The disruption of labor – especially in combination with the disruption of energy, transportation, and food – has the potential to vastly expand material abundance worldwide, and thus greatly increase prosperity for everyone, everywhere.

Widespread public concern about technological unemployment from AI and robotics remains valid in the longer term, from perhaps the late-2030s onward.

Insight 11: The technology convergence of the the humanoid robot labor engine is happening now, and manufacturability is critical

It is now a high-stakes global race to build and deploy robots as quickly as possible, among not only competitors within any given industry, but also between industries and between nations as well.

Insight 12: The humanoid form factor will dominate robotics applications for at least the next decade

Although specialization and optimization of robotics unconstrained by the human form will eventually make sense, the robots developed and deployed during the first phase of the disruption will take humanoid form.

Insight 13: Autocatalysis of humanoid robot production will be key to the success of both individual firms and national economies.

Humanoid robots must be deployed as early as possible into their own manufacturing to accelerate their production and deployment flywheel.

Insight 14: Technological unemployment remains inevitable, but latent demand for labor will be met first, creating a crucial planning window for a soft landing

The era of complementarity between labor and capital is coming to a close. “Work” will soon become something that only machines do.

It is almost impossible to overstate how radical this transformation of the human condition will be.

It will indeed be liberating to an extent that up until now has seemed almost unimaginable – purely the realm of utopian science fiction.

Insight 15: Demand for labor is so great and varied that many different firms will thrive simultaneously in the early years of the disruption.

Like light bulbs, telephones, computers, and many other disruptive technologies, the demand for humanoid robots will be enormous.

Above all, we must protect people, not firms or industries from the coming, inevitable disruption of labor

The disruption of labor is inevitable, and together with the disruptions of energy, transportation, and food, it could herald a new age of unprecedented freedom and prosperity. But only if we are willing to experiment, to learn, and to transcend the limits of the past – starting right now.

As we explained in our 2020 book, it is time to rethink humanity.

RethinkX uses our Seba Technology Disruption Framework to predict disruptions

By applying our framework together with empirical data spanning hundreds of technology disruptions, RethinkX is able to characterize the underlying dynamics of the disruption and forecast trends based on patterns we have seen time and again across thousands of years of recorded history.

Explore blogs on this topic:

Progress, not penance: Why technological innovation is the solution to our biggest problems

Cheaper, Faster, Better: How converging technologies in robotics and AI present enormous opportunities for innovation

How much should we invest in humanoid robotics?

Near-zero cost labor: The disruptive economics of humanoid robots

This time, we are the horses: the disruption of labor by humanoid robots

Browse other reports & resources:

Rethinking Energy 2020-2030 (2020)

Rethinking Energy: The Great Stranding (2021)

Rethinking Humanity (2020) (English)

Rethinking Humanity (2020) (Mandarin)

Rethinking Climate Change (2021) (Mandarin)

Rethinking Energy: Germany's Path to Freedom (2022) (English)

Rethinking Energy: Germany's Path to Freedom (2022) (Deutsche)

Rethinking Transportation (2017) (English)

Rethinking Transportation (2017) (Mandarin)

Rethinking Transportation Policy Primer (2017)

Rethinking Food & Agriculture (2019) (English)

Rethinking Food & Agriculture (2019) (Mandarin)

Rethinking Climate Change (2021) (English)

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Over the next 15-20 years, humanoid robots will disrupt human labor throughout every sector of the global economy.

These 15 insights present a high level overview on the coming disruption of labor...

Above all: Protect ***people*, not jobs, firms, or industries.**