GETTING IT RIGHT

Mainstream analysts produce linear forecasts based on mechanistic and siloed methodology that does not account for the complex, adaptive systems of the economy and society. As a result they routinely underestimate improvements in the cost and capabilities of technologies, the speed of their adoption, and the rapid speed of collapse of incumbents, and the broader implications of disruption.

The Seba Technology Disruption Framework takes a systems approach to analyze the market forces triggered by technology convergence, business model innovation, product innovation, and exponential improvements in both cost and capabilities. It captures the complex processes that drive a pattern of rapid, non- linear change.

As a result, RethinkX co-founders Tony Seba and James Arbib have been consistently more accurate than mainstream analysts in predicting the speed and scale of technological disruption.

It’s not easy to blow my mind. But earlier this week, I sat down and read a research report by RethinkX. I’ve been picking up the pieces of my consciousness ever since. I’m now convinced that I — and you — will probably never buy another car again. Ever.
— THE MOTLEY FOOL, JUNE 2017
 

The Seba Technology Disruption Framework

 

RETHINKING HUMANITY

TRANSPORT | ENERGY | AGRICULTURE | MATERIALS | INFORMATION

 
 


We are on the cusp of the fastest, deepest, most consequential transformation of human civilization in history.

During the 2020s, key technologies will converge to completely disrupt the five foundational sectors that underpin the global economy, and with them every major industry in the world today. In information, energy, food, transportation, and materials, costs will fall by a 10x or more, while production processes an order of magnitude more efficient will use 90% fewer natural resources with 10x-100x less waste.

The knock-on effects for society will be as profound as the extraordinary possibilities that emerge. For the first time in history, we could overcome poverty easily. Access to all our basic needs could become a fundamental human right. But this is just one future outcome. The alternative could see our civilization collapse into a new dark age. Which path we take depends on the choices we make, starting today. The stakes could not be higher.

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